The fate of the West could take a dangerous turn in the coming months. It could mark the beginning of the decline, perhaps irreversible, of the civilization that has marked at least the last75 years of history.
Three risks are on the horizon and they are terribly intertwined with each other
Don't give in to Russian claims on Ukraine
The first is related to the evolution of the war in Ukraine.
Any uncertainty in military support for Kiev and any form of yielding to Putin's claims to put more Russian flags on the territory of a sovereign state through illegal invasions (Crimea in 2014, then the Donbass and from 2022 the 20% of Ukrainian soil) would sanction Moscow's right to violate international rules.
It would be a defeat not of the heroic people of Ukraine, but of Europe, the United States, and all civilized countries that have condemned Russian aggression. It would authorize Putin to think that he can try again, so in the end the West barks but does not bite. And what about countries that are not part of NATO and have long been exposed to the Kremlin's insatiable appetites for Soviet revanchism?
They would live in fear of Putin's blows knowing that the West would react with many fine words and little concrete action. Peace in Europe would be permanently compromised and the sad notes of the prelude to a full-scale conflict would begin to sound. Recent revelations in Germany of Putin's speculated plans for aggression against the Baltic republics point in this direction.
The suicide of a mediocre, short-sighted and fragmented Europe
The second risk is that the European elections will be marked by the prevalence of obtuse nationalisms that would make people lose sight of the strategic design of an Old Continent that is increasingly united not only economically but also politically and increasingly capable of being a protagonist and not just an extra in world geopolitical scenarios.
Unfortunately, many of Europe's ruling classes confuse the sacrosanct affirmation of national identities-roots should never be made to shrivel-with the historical necessities of pooling fiscal rules armaments, foreign policy so as not to be marginalized from the political game in which only the great powers count. If Europe misses this opportunity to aim to become a Great Power, its end will be inevitable.
Germany's economic woes should prompt the hawks in Berlin to stop pursuing self-defeating austerity and instead focus on massive European investments financed by bond issuance as was the case with the Next Generation Eu.
France the only nuclear power of the 27 should make herself the promoter of a strong European Defense Union, repairing the damage done in 1954 when she nipped in the bud this project that would have marked the course of history differently.
The true meaning of American pride
The third risk comes from the U.S. election campaign. What will make America great in the coming years?
Enclosing itself in itself, in its internal conflicts that are tearing it apart, feeling protected from external threats only by the two Oceans and undisputed economic and military power?
Or resume its historic role as the bastion of freedom of democracy, as the first player in the world balances that must be rebuilt before China extends its hegemony, with the support of Russia?
Can the American ruling class really think that the good of the United States is to be divided internally just as powerful external threats grow?
The U.S. can never behave as if it were an island, and not only geographically. Their destiny is tied to their ability to be united and strong internally and courageous and forward-looking players externally It is this realization that should ignite American federal national pride and spark a new Awakening of the religious, moral, and cultural values that cemented the building of the United States.
Europe and the U.S. simul stabunt simul cadent
The risks described can be better addressed if, especially in the younger generations, a new idea of the West is reaffirmed. It has nothing to do with designs of world supremacy imposed with forms of neocolonialism and military enterprises.
It is a moral and ideal rebirth that should ignite in the souls of Gen Z , to which the future belongs, a passion for the values that their grandfathers and fathers cultivated and defended even with blood and sweat and that are being diluted in a mellifluous flow of moral, intellectual and psychological frailties. Instead of self-flagellation, self-pity, intellectual elites should give birth to new movements of ideas capable of generating positive passions in GenZ . And this must happen in Europe and the United States. Whose future is ineluctably intertwined, even if political elites do not realize it.
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