Will the friendship between Moscow and Beijing really be "eternal" as Xi called it in Putin's recent visit? In interstate relations there is little or nothing eternal. It all depends on the calculation of interests and power relations. In the past between the two countries there have been phases of high tension. Mao and Khrushchev deeply disliked each other. The war in Ukraine marked a turning point. In Beijing's favor and not only for economic reasons. Putin needs Xi more than the Chinese leader needs the czar.
The Kremlin would be in a condition of severe international isolation if it did not have Chinese support. Which is not free. China has not condemned the invasion of Ukraine, claims not to help Moscow militarily, meanwhile buys gas and oil from Moscow at bargain prices but without turning this convenience into energy dependence. And this speaks volumes about the real trust the Chinese place in the Russians.
Beijing's leaders are pragmatic; they have no intention of tying themselves too closely to Putin if it means the risk of depriving themselves of trade exchanges with Europe and the United States, without which the Dragon's economy would collapse. It suits Xi that the Kremlin has aligned with him in an attempt to create a global Chinese hegemony to challenge the West. Putin has accepted this subaltern role, more yuan than dollars are entering the coffers of Moscow's central bank, and he is erasing any form of anchorage to European culture: Chinese is taught in Russian schools, tourism is all being diverted to China. In practice, Putin is replacing the traditional centuries-old ties between Russia and Europe with a forced "Chineseization" of his people's economy and role models. This is, perhaps, the most tragic of the choices made by Putin: by pursuing the illusion of taking back the countries of the former USSR he is ending up becoming a satellite of China, which is obviously taking advantage of it.
*Published on the Discussion
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